European Master and Certification Program
in Risk Engineering and Management

Quantitative Risk Assessment and Advanced Applications

Course code: 136499 (SEM)
Language of instruction: English
Duration of the course: 5 days (45h)
Lecturers: Dr. Valerio Cozzani (CONPRICI - University of Bologna), Dott. Ernesto Salzano (CNR - Istituto di Ricerche Sulla Combustione)
Assessment: Written Exam, Transfer Paper, [optional topic for Project Study Paper]
Credit points: 3 CPs

Short description

The course presents an introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis, thus illustrating the necessary steps for the calculation of risk indexes.

Practical approach to frequency calculation and consequence assessment, including vulnerability models, will be discussed. A specific focus on domino effect and accidents triggered by Natural-Technological (Na-Tech) events will be presented.


The goal of the course is to give an introduction to Quantitative Risk Assessment and to introduce the participants to the analysis of risks originated outside the process boundary, i.e. due to external events. More specifically: domino effects and Na-Tech accidents due to earthquakes, flooding, lightning.
The participants will be introduced to the more accepted methodologies for chemical process risk analysis, with particular emphasis to the recent advancement on consequence analysis. A focus on the methods for the evaluation of domino effects will be presented, exemplifying the assessment of complex industrial layouts.
Na-Tech analysis methodologies developed within the Integ-risk project will provide training in supporting the resilience of industrial facilities to accidental scenario triggered by natural events.

Target Attendees / Participants

The course is dedicated to participants interested in advanced applications of risk assessment:

  • Professionals dealing with risk issues on management and operational level
  • Individuals with general technical background which require a specific training in industrial safety and risk assessment
  • Students of mater courses in Process engineering, Industrial engineering, Risk engineering or similar courses

Course Content by Units


Title & contents in brief

Duration (minutes)


Definitions and risk metric

  • Basic definitions
  • Risk indexes: definition and use
  • Risk tolerability and acceptability criteria



Basic elements for risk calculation: scenario selection, frequency and consequence assessment

  • Scenario selection from hazard identification. Parameters needed for the quantitative assessment of a scenario. Assumptions needed for the analysis of a scenario.
  • Frequency calculation: use of results from fault tree analysis; parts count.
  • Consequence assessment: use of models for consequence assessment.



Risk calculation

  • Vulnerability models. Vulnerability maps and influence of meteorological conditions.
  • Simplified examples of risk calculation: individual risk, IRPA, societal risk, example of risk-based decision making;



Quantitative assessment of domino effect

  • Examples of approach to quantitative assessment (threshold models, probabilistic models, advanced deterministic models)
  • Analysis of domino effect in complex industrial layouts
  • Simplified examples of risk calculation



Assessment of the industrial risk induced by natural events (Na-Tech)

The main steps of the procedure developed for the assessment of Na-Tech accidents will be presented:

  • Characterization of the natural event
  • Identification of target equipment, damage states and reference scenarios
  • Estimation of the damage probability, detailed fragility models
  • Consequence evaluation of the reference scenario, identification of credible combinations of events
  • Frequency/probability and consequence calculation for each combination
  • Calculation of risk indexes, Early warnings




Case-studies and use of risk results

  • Simplified assessment of an Oil&Gas installation: simplified calculation of risk indexes and risk-based decision making;
  • Example of domino effect and Na-Tech implementation in risk assessment



Optional units:


Title & contents in brief

Duration (minutes)


  • Case study for practical demonstration
  • Use of software tools for numerical calculations and mapping





Teaching Methods

Ex-cathedra lecturing.

Use of a case-study for practical demonstration.

Use of software tools for numerical calculations and mapping.


  1. Textbook: CCPS AIChe series on risk assessment (QRA, Consequence Analysis)
  2. Council Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major-accident hazards
  3. Directive 2003/105/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2003 amending Council Directive 96/82/EC.

For more information about the European Master and Certification Program in Risk Engineering and Management in general, go the Homepage.
For more information about the European Master Program in Risk Engineering and Management in general, go the Master Study page.
To see more courses in the curriculum, go to The curriculum page, or by date and topic go to the Calendar of Courses page.
Contact: via email or phone +49 711 1839 781 or +49 711 1839 647
(Course profile ID: VD-R26, generated on March 4, 2024)