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Objectives
The goal of the course is to give an introduction to Quantitative Risk Assessment and to introduce the participants to the analysis of risks originated outside the process boundary, i.e. due to external events. More specifically: domino effects and Na-Tech accidents due to earthquakes, flooding, lightning.
The participants will be introduced to the more accepted methodologies for chemical process risk analysis, with particular emphasis to the recent advancement on consequence analysis.
A focus on the methods for the evaluation of domino effects will be presented, exemplifying the assessment of complex industrial layouts.
Na-Tech analysis methodologies developed within the Integ-risk project will provide training in supporting the resilience of industrial facilities to accidental scenario triggered by natural events.
Target Attendees / Participants
The course is dedicated to participants interested in advanced applications of risk assessment:
- Professionals dealing with risk issues on management and operational level
- Individuals with general technical background which require a specific training in industrial safety and risk assessment
- Students of mater courses in Process engineering, Industrial engineering, Risk engineering or similar courses
Course Content by Units
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Unit
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Title & contents in brief
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Duration (minutes)
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1.
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Definitions and risk metric
- Risk indexes: definition and use
- Risk tolerability and acceptability criteria
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180
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2.
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Basic elements for risk calculation: scenario selection, frequency and consequence assessment
- Scenario selection from hazard identification. Parameters needed for the quantitative assessment of a scenario. Assumptions needed for the analysis of a scenario.
- Frequency calculation: use of results from fault tree analysis; parts count.
- Consequence assessment: use of models for consequence assessment.
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240
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3.
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Risk calculation
- Vulnerability models. Vulnerability maps and influence of meteorological conditions.
- Simplified examples of risk calculation: individual risk, IRPA, societal risk, example of risk-based decision making;
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120
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4.
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Quantitative assessment of domino effect
- Examples of approach to quantitative assessment (threshold models, probabilistic models, advanced deterministic models)
- Analysis of domino effect in complex industrial layouts
- Simplified examples of risk calculation
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300
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5.
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Assessment of the industrial risk induced by natural events (Na-Tech)
The main steps of the procedure developed for the assessment of Na-Tech accidents will be presented:
- Characterization of the natural event
- Identification of target equipment, damage states and reference scenarios
- Estimation of the damage probability, detailed fragility models
- Consequence evaluation of the reference scenario, identification of credible combinations of events
- Frequency/probability and consequence calculation for each combination
- Calculation of risk indexes, Early warnings
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420
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6.
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Case-studies and use of risk results
- Simplified assessment of an Oil&Gas installation: simplified calculation of risk indexes and risk-based decision making;
- Example of domino effect and Na-Tech implementation in risk assessment
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420
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Optional units:
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Unit
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Title & contents in brief
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Duration (minutes)
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7.
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- Case study for practical demonstration
- Use of software tools for numerical calculations and mapping
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180
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Teaching Methods
Ex-cathedra lecturing.
Use of a case-study for practical demonstration.
Use of software tools for numerical calculations and mapping.
Literature
- Textbook: CCPS AIChe series on risk assessment (QRA, Consequence Analysis)
- Council Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major-accident hazards
- Directive 2003/105/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2003 amending Council Directive 96/82/EC.
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